the maths · the sources · the disclaimers

how this is calculated.

no spin. no lead-gen. just the model and where the numbers come from.

the model

we project your savings forward using the dollar amount you save each month. at the same time, the deposit target — 20% of the suburb median, or 5% if you’re using the first home guarantee — grows at the suburb’s historical annual price growth rate, compounded monthly.

the “crossover” is the first month your savings reach or exceed the full walk-in-the-door cost: deposit + estimated stamp duty + ~$3,000 fixed buying costs (conveyancing, inspections) + the safety buffer you set. if the target grows faster than you can save, you’ll see “never”. that’s not a bug.

stamp duty

stamp duty is estimated using a flat-percentage approximation per state, with first home buyer concessions where applicable (NSW exempt to ~$800k, VIC concession to ~$600k, QLD concession to ~$700k, WA to ~$450k, ACT means-tested, etc.). real schedules are bracketed and means-tested in detail; this estimator is deliberately conservative to avoid under-quoting the cash needed at settlement.

for a binding figure, use your state revenue office’s official duty calculator (revenuensw.nsw.gov.au, sro.vic.gov.au, qro.qld.gov.au, etc.).

data sources

  • ABS 6432.0 Total Value of Dwellings — Median Price of Established House Transfers (Dec 2025 quarter)
  • ABS 6432.0 Total Value of Dwellings — Median Price of Attached Dwelling Transfers (Dec 2025 quarter)

last updated 2026-05-09. v1 covers 20 capital cities + major regions (ABS SA4-style aggregation). suburb-level granularity is on the roadmap.

what this tool isn't

  • not financial advice.it’s a public estimator. nothing here accounts for your full financial situation, debts, dependants, or risk profile.
  • not a mortgage pre-qualification.we don’t talk to lenders. we don’t capture leads. we don’t know what you’ll actually be approved to borrow.
  • not a forecast.price growth is projected at the suburb’s historical rate. real prices are noisier. crashes happen. booms happen. the chart is a baseline, not a prophecy.
  • not a substitute for talking to a professional. for binding numbers, see a licensed mortgage broker, a financial adviser, or your state revenue office.

if you spot a problem

data freshness, dodgy stamp duty band, suburb missing — please flag it. we update the seed data on a roughly weekly cadence. accuracy beats novelty.

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how this is calculated

we project your savings forward using the dollar amount you save each month. at the same time, the deposit target — 20% of the suburb median, or 5% if you’re using the first home guarantee — grows at the suburb’s historical annual growth rate, compounded monthly.

the crossover is the first month your savings reach or exceed the deposit target. if the deposit grows faster than you can save, you’ll see “never”— and that’s not a bug. that’s the point.

data: ABS 6432.0 Total Value of Dwellings — Median Price of Established House Transfers (Dec 2025 quarter) · ABS 6432.0 Total Value of Dwellings — Median Price of Attached Dwelling Transfers (Dec 2025 quarter) · last updated 2026-05-09. not financial advice. just maths.